Macroeconomic Scenarios
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Containing the most recent short and medium term scenarios for the Brazilian economy, forecasted by the ANDIMA Macroeconomics Monitoring Committee.
[ June / 2008 ]
| Variables |
2008 average |
2009 average |
| SELIC Rate (average % p.a.) |
12,53 |
14,36 |
| SELIC Rate in December (% p.a.) |
14,36 |
13,84 |
| Exchange Rate Devaluation (%) |
-6,1 |
4,2 |
| Exchange Rate in 12/31 |
1,6631 |
1,7331 |
| Average Exchange Rate |
1,6749 |
1,7028 |
| Expanded Consumer Price Index - IPCA (%) |
6,32 |
4,89 |
| General Price Index for the Financial Markets - IGP-M (%) |
11,43 |
5,54 |
| Wholesale Price Index - Industrial (%) |
12,18 |
5,69 |
| Wholesale Price Index - Agricultural (%) |
18,83 |
6,74 |
| Trade Balance (US$ billion) |
23,1 |
13,2 |
| Exports |
189,8 |
207,7 |
| Imports |
166,7 |
194,5 |
| Balance of Current Transactions (% GDP) |
-1,4 |
-1,9 |
| (In US$ billions) |
-24,3 |
-34,3 |
| Direct External Investment (US$ billions) |
34,2 |
32,7 |
| International Reserves (Net Intern.) - US$ billions |
212 |
222 |
| Spread over Treasury (Embi) - in base points |
194 |
167 |
| Public Sector Borrowing Requirement - Primary (% GDP) |
4,3 |
4,0 |
| Public Sector Borrowing Requirement - Nominal (% GDP) |
-1,6 |
-1,8 |
| Net Debt of the Public Sector (% GDP) |
40,6 |
39,2 |
| GDP Growth Rate (%) |
4,8 |
3,8 |
| Farming and Livestock (%) |
4,5 |
4,6 |
| Industry (%) |
5,0 |
4,2 |
| Services (%) |
4,6 |
3,7 |
| GDP (US$ billions) |
2863 |
3139 |
| Average Rate of Open Unemployment - IBGE (%) |
8,2 |
8,1 |
| Industrial Production - General Industry/IBGE (% in the year) |
5,6 |
4,6 |
|