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Macroeconomic Scenarios


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Containing the most recent short and medium term scenarios for the Brazilian economy, forecasted by the ANDIMA Macroeconomics Monitoring Committee.

[ June / 2008 ]
Variables 2008
average		 2009
average
SELIC Rate (average % p.a.) 12,53 14,36
SELIC Rate in December (% p.a.) 14,36 13,84
Exchange Rate Devaluation (%) -6,1 4,2
Exchange Rate in 12/31 1,6631 1,7331
Average Exchange Rate 1,6749 1,7028
Expanded Consumer Price Index - IPCA (%) 6,32 4,89
General Price Index for the Financial Markets - IGP-M (%) 11,43 5,54
     Wholesale Price Index - Industrial (%) 12,18 5,69
     Wholesale Price Index - Agricultural (%) 18,83 6,74
Trade Balance (US$ billion) 23,1 13,2
     Exports 189,8 207,7
     Imports 166,7 194,5
Balance of Current Transactions (% GDP) -1,4 -1,9
     (In US$ billions) -24,3 -34,3
Direct External Investment (US$ billions) 34,2 32,7
International Reserves (Net Intern.) - US$ billions 212 222
Spread over Treasury (Embi) - in base points 194 167
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement - Primary (% GDP) 4,3 4,0
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement - Nominal (% GDP) -1,6 -1,8
Net Debt of the Public Sector (% GDP) 40,6 39,2
GDP Growth Rate (%) 4,8 3,8
     Farming and Livestock (%) 4,5 4,6
     Industry (%) 5,0 4,2
     Services (%) 4,6 3,7
GDP (US$ billions) 2863 3139
Average Rate of Open Unemployment - IBGE (%) 8,2 8,1
Industrial Production - General Industry/IBGE (% in the year) 5,6 4,6
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